Impending implosion in the industry. Personal opinion

Im not sure I'd call what will happen an Implosion.

With the industry leaning towards "Mega Ships" what you will soon start seeing is a decline, due to those who dont like the big ship feel. RCI for example, they currently are fielding soon to be 28 (32 or so by 2024) ships, with what will remain a Majority of them being on the smaller side. You will see an extended service life of the Freedom, Voyager, Radiance, Vision, and Sovereign class ships.

Since their founding in 1968, RCI has only "retired" 10 ships:

Song of Norway(1996), Nordic Prince(1995), Sun Viking(1998), Song of America(1999), Viking Serenade(2002), Nordic Empress/Empress of the Seas(2008) which has since been returned to active service(2015), Sovereign of the Seas(2008), Monarch of the Seas(2013), Splendor of the Seas(2016), and Legend of the Seas(2017). Soon the Grandeur of the Seas will also be retired(2021).

Every one of those ships has gone on to service with different lines, with most of them still being in service.

The Icon ships will add another class between Quantum/Quantum Ultra, and Oasis. After that, I believe that they will bring a new class in the area between the Freedom and Voyager class(around 110,000-120,000 tonnes)

While the trend is going bigger, They will need something to fill the voids that retiring the smaller ships will leave

I dont thing things will implode yet. The industry is following Disney. I was a Disney fanatic, going to disneyland and disney world every year. They used to be cheap to get in the parks and give you dining coupons when you buy a vacation package. Camping for $22 a night now $80 a night. Now you pay for everything. now we go once every 5 years or so. Cruising, they used to give you things like mints, etc. now they stop giving away and now you pay. So what was cheap now costs more and no freebies. Like Disney, cruising will be for people with lots of cash to spend and the "poor" people will have to do something else. The saying "build it and they will come" held true for Disney and now for cruising. We used to do 2 or 3 cruises a year and now going down to one. We dont like big ships. So we dust off our r v. If you noticed most cruise line chatrooms, almost everyone complains about this and that. Camping chatrooms dont complain, just ask questions, thus happy campers. We been camping for 35 years and cruising for 11 years by the way. My opinion.

Congrats on your upcoming 4th cruise. We’ve seen a lot of changes in roughly 20 odd years of cruising. Some good, most, not so good. Mostly, things get taken away. Lately, the ships just keep getting bigger. Pretty soon you’ll need a tender to board in Miami.

didn’t mean to sound condescending, sorry if I offended anyone

sarahg111 no need to apologize for the great post. I do suggest you try one of the megaships to compare to the smaller ones. I am fairly new to cruising but I have seen where some cruisers like the big ships and some like smaller ones. We have been on 2 small ones and one big one and have not really decided what we like better.

Yankee47 I agree with you totally about the people in charge of these cruise lines are pretty intelligent and would not be putting orders in for these new ships to be build and redoing older ones if they did not feel it was going to continue to grow.

To the OP I do not see any of these cruise lines going bankrupt in the near future and if any do I would doubt it would be RCCL or NCL We only started cruising 3 years ago and will be going on our 4th cruise late spring of this year. When our kids were younger it was really never in our budget but now that they are grown and moved or moving out we have enough extra cash to go on them. The cruises we have been on have been so enjoyable and relaxing for us. There are so many things to do on a cruise and activities for all ages and preferences and they stop at a lot of great places even if they might be crowded. We have never tried an all inclusive resort but I was fortunate enough to earn one for 3 nights all paid for so hopefully that will give us an idea of what they are like and maybe help us decide if we want to book one ourselves. I have checked and the place we are staying with the all inclusive package is slightly over $500 per day for the 2 of us which would put it at about $3600 for a week and you can book a great 7 night cruise for less than that.

sarahg111, that was a great, no...better...spectacular post, don't apologize for its length. I can say that while you may "not be the norm" for your generation, there's hope at least. I suspect that every preceding generation may have (or had) a dim view of the next one. I have come to believe it has something to do with the old saw about having "more behind you than in front of you:". Yes indeed, I have the time, the inclination, and the resources to do this kind of stuff, and appreciate it, according to my own standards of what I like, and what I don't.

Every industry needs to adapt, to change with the times. NCL for example, has increased its order for those "LEONARDO CLASS" ships, six new ones will be afloat by 2026. Last time I looked there were over 100 new cruisers on order or in construction. Who knows what kinds of perks, packages or so-called "attractions" they'll have. I find it hard to believe those battalions of analysts and others who get the big bucks to play with the demographics could be so wrong about the future. Of course if they convinced the folks up in mahogany row about impending financial ruin, they'd be among the first to have their beans counted, if ye follow.

In any event, keep those "perspectives" coming, It was worth considerably more than .02!!!

Great topic, thanks for sharing! I am 24 - my boyfriend and I booked a cruise a few months back for March. I have many friends (and friends of friends) that have been on friend trips, honeymoons, trips with their family etc. I went on a girls trip Alaska cruise with RCCL 2 years ago. We looks at various different locations and various methods - tour companies, planning ourselves & staying in AirBnB, an all inclusive etc. I've found that (especially when traveling in groups) cruise are nice because you know the total cost upfront (other than drinks onboard & gratuities, which we know about going into it). Many all inclusive resorts I looked at in the Caribbean/Mexico that would have been (in my opinion) comparable service to RCCL were almost double the price and you don't get a change of scenery/activities almost every day. Most of my friends and I are still on a budget as we're paying back student loans and (most) are only 2-4 years into our careers. Many people in my generation (or at least the people in my life) value traveling even when we're a little tight on money - pretty much all of my money that doesn't go to bills/necessities, savings, retirement, goes into my travel fund. We tend to not do speciality dining, book interior rooms (on my girls trip we had 4 of us in one room and it was a funny experience that we still laugh about), and would rather save $ and have more activities/experiences than have a mint on our pillow and some smaller things they may have cut back on.

I do agree that the ports (especially Caribbean/Mexico/Bahamas) are very commercialized but I understand that they need the infrastructure. I always avoid all the port shopping and do TONS of research through the internet and post on social media for friends and family (and the RCCL facebook groups) advice on ports, I think I've had multiple suggestions for every port i've ever asked about and they were great! Excursions and areas that are less touristy appeal to me - usually not with the cruise line, but sometimes they are!

I haven't been on a mega ship - but have done lots of research, it's very appealing to me! I want to go on one someday. We are going on RCCL Freedom, which I've been on before. I can definitely see myself taking my future family on cruises - and having my siblings & their families and other extended family join. There is so much variety for all ages and budgets even on the same sailing - interior vs suite, main dining vs specialty, etc. I wouldn't take a cruise every time I get vacation time, as I also love going to national parks, hiking, road trips, and more - but every couple years I think cruising is a great option. I've made friends from cruises 2 years and 5 years back that I am still in touch with on social media. I love being disconnected and meeting new people, traveling.

I may not be the norm for my generation but I can see other people having a similar view point especially when kids are in the mix. I don't see the industry going bankrupt but I could see them making changes to the overall experience to target younger generation, which is what every industry does over time, or yes they will go bankrupt.

Just my 2 cents, sorry for the super long post, I hope you enjoy my perspective!

They haven't started giving them away yet. and whatever happens, I'll be sure to figure some way to take advantage of it. I fully intend to continue spending, on cruises or whatever. I don't have a burial suit with optional pockets "to take it with me". The way I look at it, even if you're right, I don't care. And, fwiw, I don't feel the least bit guilty. Besides, given the choice, I'd rather cruise with other greybeards who have a grip.

Well, very good topic for discussion. Monique and I are cruising on the Royal next week, because I always wanted to cruise on the royal. Will we cruise on a mega ship after this? I will let you know. Last year we did our first All Inclusive and may do that again as they are a very good bang for the buck, While the lines offer drink packages, wi-fi and other perks, there are still charges added to the bill daily. So will the industry grow, maybe. However, as the younger generations become more globally aware, will they be willing to spend their money cruising? Or will there be other ways for them to use their time and funds on other ventures. Every thing has a cycle, I still like cruising though.

I've asked the same questions with all the mega ships floating out of the yards - looking at it like number of floating hotel rooms. When you start to see lots of really cheap cabins across many different lines, probably get close to room saturations - many rooms chasing not enough people. Might have to cull some of the older ships to keep the big ones full and control the number of hotel rooms.

Spike in fuel prices - oops, heavy hurricane season in the Caribbean - oops - its really interesting to watch at this time.

I thought much the same a few years ago and posted it that here but I have since revised my judgement on that. First millennials do spend. In fact I think they spend more than the previous group as many have good jobe, live at home and put more value on experience and less on holdings. Also families are starting to cruise and with kids and at younger ages so the bigger mega ships are necessary. They keep adding and keep on filling them so for the near future at least short of a collapse of the world financials I do not see any problems for the cruise industry other than some over populated ports and pollution concerns.