CONSIDERING WHATS GOING ON IN THE MARKET

I suspect in the case of a saturation before seeing the price drops we will see the sale and or retirement of many of the older and smaller ships in the fleet as maintenance costs tend to increase with those.

Market may reach a saturation point where there are far more cabin than people to fill them. In that event, we'll see measurable price reductions. Obviously the analysts have convinced the market is in a long term growth spurt and there are a lot of new ships coming on-line. Its got to pause eventually.

Yep we definitely need to meet up one of these seasons.

A few years ago I thought that the cruise industry was over building and would implode. Man was I wrong. The large cruise lines are run by a few far sighted people that were able to realize that there was a huge potential untapped market of people looking for a new experience that wanted to be entertained 100% of the time all the time. They realized the smaller ships could not deliver on this therefore created the huge floating family resorts with all of the bells and whistles that have the added bonus of waking up each morning in a new location. They have opened up and enticed several new generations into thinking cruise first for a vacation where they can be entertained and pampered for the entire time. This is not greed ... this is just foresight and good business. And this is something that will ride out the ups and downs and nothing short of a full on crash a la the 30s will derail it. And even then I can see the cruise lines still surviving.

On the other hand ... greed ... well that is very abundant in the corporate world and governments and there is far too much of it and it is the root of pretty well all of the issues in the world today. Even if you look at hate you will see the roots of it stem from greed.

Good business is not to be confused with greed. The two are as different as night and day. Greed will cause chaos and havoc while good business will thrive and survive and pay back those with innovative thought and the initiative "to boldly go where no man has gone before". Sorry could not resist stealing that quote because who knows where the future cruise industry will be sailing.

Are they overbuilding as a result? Maybe. Time will tell.

My gut says that the market will grow to fill the capacity that is on order.

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Never fails to amaze me the number of newbie cruisers are on any given ship, especially the bigger ones. And no I dont count em hehehe...but somehow if you've cruised enough, and as you wander around the ship yourself, you can almost "know" who knows their way around the block and who are dazed and confuzzled. Casinos have been known to make billion dollar construction blunders (lookit AC), but so far, the cruise lines subscribe to the "if you build it they will come" theory...no matter what they charge, or over charge, or stop doing...only us "old timers" would even notice...

I think the reason the cruise lines are continuing to build goes back to the mid-2000s.

Back then, RCI was planning the Oasis Class and Carnival had the Pinnacle class on the drawing board. When the capital markets went south, RCI pressed on and Carnival cancelled in favor of cheaper, less risky ships. This allowed RCI to claim the top of the big ship market.

I think all of the lines are trying to avoid Carnival's mistake.

Are they overbuilding as a result? Maybe. Time will tell.

My gut says that the market will grow to fill the capacity that is on order.

Since when is the profit motive and greed a "bump in the road". Thats EXACTLY how I got to be able to cruise a couple times a year, plus any land vackays I happen to like. my whole life is a vackay compared to the folks who have to hump every day to make ends meet. but I digress...how about you and me agree to meet in say 5 years (IF we're still above ground), and discuss the price drops and mega ship building cancellations? I hope the former is possible,( I'd look forward to it), the latter not possible at all...

There are many that current changes will affect and there are many that it won't but in the long term things usually even out. There are always bumps in the road but over time they usually even out

This reminds me of Disney. We WERE Disney fanatics, alternated between California and Florida. Camping in Fort Wilderness at Disney World was $22 per night, now $80 to $120 a night.(we would always take our r v) You could get a camping package of 5 days for around $400, this included tickets to all parks, you get meal tickets to eat at any restaurants on property, and go to any pool on the property. Now Disney is like the mega ships. Bigger and more expensive, even now charging a parking fee at the resort you are staying, except Fort Wilderness. So now we went cruising a lot. Now we see the cruise industry like Disney, started off cheap, attracting families and now getting more expensive. We still go to Disney but not as often(too crowded, long lines, etc), we are starting to cut back on cruising(big ships too many people) As long as they have Conquest class ships, we will continuing cruising. Our next adventure is river cruising,small ships less people.

Since the "kids" are up and grown, we plan to save for at least one cruise a year, and spend our vacation time with the kids and grand kids. We don't have a secret pocket, and of course the amount of disposable (saving) income has dwindled to a point where if we want to do something special, we have to pan for it. The cruise lines are a FOR PROFIT business. If there is no market, there is no need to create these mega ships. There have been arguments put forward about the low price of the cruise and many add-ons at check out. Also mentioned, more than once, is the passenger demographic leaning toward a bit of a rowdy crowd. Well we will still cruise when we can, and use the family timeshare when we can and also go to all-inclusives if we get a good deal. Afre all, we may not have much, but we can't take it with us.

I don't care about the financial well being of the cruise lines. I don't hold any of their paper. what Im curious about is whether or not people will cut back on their cruise plans, as their disposable income for this kind if extravagance shrinks as the prices for merely living continue to rise as a result of the trade war, which we all know is "easy to win.." Frankly, its not going to affect us, since I don't have one of those burial suits with the secret pocket..I can't take it with me, and Im doing my level best to spend it. Rational folks, with families, have more important things to do with their $$...or at least they ought to.